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Pension Drawdown calculator

LIVE
Pot lasts (years)
42
Safe withdrawal rate
5%

Model a flexi-access drawdown — how long your pension pot lasts at a given withdrawal rate, investment return and inflation.

Laura WhitmoreFinance Editor
  • CII Level 4 Diploma in Financial Planning (Chartered Insurance Institute)
  • Former senior reporter, The Times Money and Moneywise
Reviewed by Editorial Desk· Maths, Dates and Utilities Team

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How it works

What is pension drawdown?

Flexi-access drawdown lets you take money from your defined contribution pension pot as and when you need it, while leaving the remaining funds invested. Introduced under the Pension Freedoms legislation of April 2015, it replaced the older "capped drawdown" and gave retirees full flexibility over how they take income.

You can currently enter drawdown from age 55. This minimum access age rises to 57 in April 2028 (matching the government's revised Normal Minimum Pension Age). Some public sector scheme members have a protected pension age of 55 under transitional provisions.

The first 25% of your pot can be taken tax-free as a Pension Commencement Lump Sum (PCLS). Since April 2024 this is capped at £268,275 across all pension schemes following the abolition of the Lifetime Allowance. Every pound withdrawn above this free element is taxed as income at your marginal rate.

Unlike an annuity, drawdown leaves you responsible for investment decisions and longevity risk. If your pot runs out while you are still alive, or if markets perform poorly, you face a significant income shortfall. Most financial planners recommend drawdown alongside guaranteed income sources such as the State Pension or an annuity for core living costs.

How the pot depletion calculation works

The number of years your pot will last depends on three variables: the starting pot size, the monthly withdrawal amount, and the assumed investment return. The formula uses the present value of an annuity calculation in reverse.

Using the formula: N (in months) = −ln(1 − (r × PV ÷ PMT)) ÷ ln(1 + r), where r = monthly return (annual return ÷ 12), PV = pot value, PMT = monthly withdrawal.

Example: £300,000 pot, £1,500/month withdrawal, 5% annual return (r = 0.4167%/month). N = −ln(1 − (0.004167 × 300,000 ÷ 1,500)) ÷ ln(1.004167) = −ln(1 − 0.8333) ÷ 0.004158 ≈ 340 months (28.3 years).

If the monthly withdrawal exceeds the monthly return × pot, the pot will deplete in finite time regardless of rate. If you withdraw less than returns generate, the pot grows indefinitely — the zero-depletion threshold.

Pot SizeMonthly Withdrawal3% Annual Return5% Annual Return7% Annual Return
£100,000£500/mo23.5 years30.4 years∞ (pot grows)
£200,000£800/mo31.0 years∞∞
£200,000£1,200/mo18.8 years25.9 years43.1 years
£300,000£1,500/mo24.4 years∞∞
£500,000£2,000/mo∞∞∞
Approximate drawdown duration by pot size, monthly withdrawal, and investment return (illustrative — does not account for inflation or charges)

The 4% rule and its UK limitations

The 4% rule originated from the 1994 "Trinity Study" in the US, which found that withdrawing 4% of a balanced portfolio in year one (then adjusting for inflation each year) had historically sustained a 30-year retirement in US markets with very high confidence.

Applied to the UK, the 4% rule means a £300,000 pot supports £12,000/year (£1,000/month). But UK equity markets have historically delivered lower returns than the S&P 500 index, and UK bond yields have been more volatile.

Most UK financial planners now use a 3–3.5% withdrawal rate for conservative planning. The Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) Retirement Living Standards suggest a "moderate" retirement requires ~£31,300/year for a single person (2023 figures, likely higher by 2026). With a State Pension of £11,502/year, you need your pot to generate ~£19,800/year — a 3.5% rate would require a £565,000 pot.

The 4% rule does not account for variable sequence of returns — a major market fall in years 1–5 of retirement is far more damaging than the same fall later, because you sell more units at depressed prices to fund withdrawals.

Tax in drawdown: the emergency tax trap

One of the most common and avoidable pitfalls in drawdown is emergency tax. When you take your first flexible income payment from a pension, HMRC's systems often do not have your tax code available. The provider is required to apply an emergency tax code — typically month 1 basis — which can mean you are taxed as if every payment that month were your entire annual income.

On a £20,000 lump sum withdrawal, emergency tax could deduct over £7,000 that should not be owed. You can reclaim this by submitting form P55 (partial withdrawal), P53Z (emptied the pot), or P50Z (stopped work and emptied pot) to HMRC. Refunds typically take 3–8 weeks.

To avoid the trap, take a small "trigger" payment first (as little as £1) to get the correct tax code established, then take larger withdrawals. Alternatively, nominate your pension provider to operate your full tax code from the outset.

The Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) of £10,000 is triggered the moment you take any flexible income from a DC pension. This severely limits future pension contributions — important if you plan to return to work.

Drawdown vs annuity: a practical comparison

An annuity converts your pension pot into a guaranteed income for life (or a fixed term), paid by an insurance company. A drawdown keeps your pot invested and lets you vary withdrawals. The right choice — or blend — depends on your health, income needs, and attitude to risk.

In 2026, a level annuity for a healthy 65-year-old male might buy £5,500–£6,000/year per £100,000 of pot. An index-linked annuity (rising by RPI/CPI) costs significantly more — perhaps £3,800–£4,200/year per £100,000, reflecting the insurer's cost of inflation protection.

Enhanced annuities for those with serious health conditions (cancer, heart disease, diabetes, heavy smoking) can pay 20–30% more. Always shop the open market (use MAS's comparison service) rather than accepting your pension provider's default rate.

The "annuity or drawdown" choice is not binary. Many planners recommend using part of the pot to buy an annuity (or relying on the State Pension) for essential spending, with the remainder in drawdown for flexibility.

Annuity vs drawdown: key trade-offs

  • Annuity: guaranteed income for life — eliminates longevity risk
  • Annuity: fixed at purchase — cannot benefit from future rate rises or market growth
  • Drawdown: pot stays invested — potential for growth
  • Drawdown: full flexibility on withdrawal amounts and timing
  • Drawdown: remaining pot passes to beneficiaries on death (outside estate for IHT purposes)
  • Drawdown: requires active management and tolerates sequence-of-returns risk
  • Annuity: no value passes on death (unless guaranteed period selected)

Key risks in drawdown and how to manage them

Longevity risk: living longer than your pot lasts is the biggest drawdown risk. Office for National Statistics data for 2024 shows a 65-year-old UK woman has a 25% chance of reaching 95. A 30-year drawdown must withstand 30 years of investment volatility, inflation, and withdrawal pressure.

Sequence-of-returns risk: a major market fall in your first 5 years of retirement — when your pot is largest — can permanently impair its ability to recover. The "bucket strategy" (keeping 2–3 years of cash withdrawals in a savings account, untouched by market movements) can mitigate this.

Inflation risk: at 3% inflation, £30,000/year of spending needs to be £40,300 after 10 years to maintain the same purchasing power. Ensure some exposure to equities or index-linked assets to protect against erosion.

Charges: drawdown platform charges and fund management fees compound dramatically over decades. A 1.5% total charge on a £300,000 pot over 20 years costs roughly £90,000 more than a 0.5% charge — always compare total expense ratios.

A sustainable withdrawal plan reviewed annually, supported by regulated financial advice, remains the best protection against depleting your pot too soon.

Frequently asked questions

What age can I start pension drawdown?
You can currently enter pension drawdown from age 55. This rises to 57 in April 2028. Some members with a protected pension age (set before the 2028 rule change) may be able to access earlier — check with your pension provider.
How much of my pension can I take tax-free?
You can take 25% of your pension pot tax-free as a Pension Commencement Lump Sum (PCLS). This is capped at £268,275 across all your pension schemes (Lump Sum Allowance, effective from April 2024). All withdrawals above this amount are taxed as income at your marginal rate.
How long will my pension pot last in drawdown?
It depends on pot size, withdrawal rate, and investment returns. A £200,000 pot with £1,000/month withdrawals and 4% annual returns lasts roughly 25–27 years. Use our drawdown calculator for a personalised estimate. The 4% rule suggests £200,000 supports £8,000/year indefinitely (approximately).
What is the 4% rule for pension drawdown?
The 4% rule says you can withdraw 4% of your pot in year one (then adjust for inflation each year) and historically have a very high probability of the pot lasting 30 years. On a £300,000 pot, that is £12,000/year. UK financial planners often use 3–3.5% as a more cautious guideline.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
Sequence-of-returns risk is the danger that a major market fall in the early years of retirement permanently impairs your pot, because you are selling units at low prices to fund withdrawals. The same average return experienced in a different order can leave you with dramatically more or less money after 20 years.
What is the emergency tax issue with pension drawdown?
When you make your first flexible withdrawal, HMRC may not have your tax code and applies an emergency (month 1) code. This over-taxes you — sometimes by thousands of pounds. You reclaim the excess using HMRC form P55 (partial withdrawal). Refunds typically take 3–8 weeks.
Can I still contribute to a pension after I start drawdown?
Yes, but your annual pension contribution allowance drops to the Money Purchase Annual Allowance (MPAA) of £10,000 once you take any flexible income. This compares to the standard £60,000 Annual Allowance. Employer contributions also count against the MPAA.
Is pension drawdown better than an annuity?
It depends on your circumstances. Drawdown offers flexibility and the potential for growth, but carries longevity and investment risk. Annuities offer guaranteed income for life. Many financial planners recommend a blend: use State Pension or a small annuity for essential costs, drawdown for discretionary spending.
What happens to my drawdown pot when I die?
Your drawdown pot falls outside your estate for inheritance tax purposes. If you die before age 75, it can be passed to nominated beneficiaries completely tax-free. If you die at 75 or older, beneficiaries pay income tax at their marginal rate on withdrawals. Nominate beneficiaries via an expression of wishes with your pension provider.
How much pension pot does the average UK retiree have?
According to FCA and ONS data from 2025, the average DC pension pot at retirement in the UK is approximately £80,000–£90,000. This is far below what most planners recommend. The PLSA suggests a "moderate" retirement needs around £31,300/year for a single person — pointing to a significant savings gap for many.

References

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